Since it's a new model it doesn't lease that well...(as has been said many times before) I would say for a 45,000 car $580-600 a month with nothing down (if you've got the credit) doesn't sound bad. BMW does have a lease special on the X3 3.0 which costs about the same with those options and you could probably get a $520-550 deal on that. I think an X3 would be better, unless you desire the 3 series sedan styling more, considering you want AWD... One thing that is in your favor is that dealers love 3yr low mileage (10k a year) leases.