Thanks to Xmas for his tip -- I saw the 16" post on another thread. Have you actually mounted tires and fit the rims to the car to make sure the rotor will accept them?
Regarding the AWD vs. RWD debate, I think it all comes down to your own personal comfort level with the associated risk. For maximizing grip (an important thing in low-traction environments) having 4 wheels doing the work is superior to having only two, period. Its simple physics. However, that doesn't mean that you can't get by with only two wheels assuming they have the approrpiate tires. You have to adjust your driving accordingly. The trade off for the increased sure-footedness in the snow is more weight, and thus less performance, and the different handling characteristics associated with a pure RWD car. If your personality is such that you value the comfort of knowing you've got maximum grip, then AWD is the way to go. If you instead value increased performance on dry pavement due to less weight and the handling characteristics of a RWD car, and you are willing to adjust your driving in the snow, then RWD will get you through.
For me, there aren't that many days in a typical MN winter where you get so much snow that the roads become impossible to navigate (knock on wood) -- the plows get out quickly, and they lay down so much salt that there is usually decent road surface available. For me, decent road surface, good snow tires, and a good DSC system translate into getting where I need to go, perhaps slowly, but safely. And when the weather is too crappy, I'll work from home or take my wife's XC70.
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